If Washington votes to make its K-12 classes smaller on Nov. 4, the Legislature will allocate the estimated cost of $6.6 billion from the state’s sources of revenue — including its public colleges and universities.

Initiative 1351 would increase staffing in school districts across the state, which has some of the largest class sizes in the country — about 24 students per class in elementary grades and 30 per class in high school, according to 2011-12 data from the National Center for Education Statistics.

The national averages in that year (the last for which data are available) were 21.2 and 26.8, respectively.

I-1351 would neither increase nor decrease state revenues, but expenditures would increase by $4.7 billion over the next four years, according to the state Office of Financial Management. Additionally, the initiative would bolster school districts’ authority to impose local property taxes, which could generate up to $1.9 billion through 2019.

“What that falls to is higher education, because higher education could raise tuition,” said Pullman City Councilman Francis Benjamin, the president of the board of directors for the Association of Washington Cities. “They’ll also go to cities and counties, because cities and counties have ways to make revenue. WSU is just one of many state agencies that they’d look at.”

Unlike two-thirds of the state budget, higher education spending is not protected by the federal government or the state constitution.

WSU communication director Kathy Barnard said the university would not take a stance on the initiative.

 “There’s no way I’m going to argue against smaller class sizes — at least to a point,” said Paul Sturm, the superintendent of the Pullman School District, where class sizes hover in the mid-20s for a target average of 25. “I’m in favor, conceptually, of having the smallest class sizes we can afford.”

The new hires would include some 7,400 teachers as well as 18,000 other school employees, from principals to custodians. These numbers are based on school-funding formulas recommended by a bipartisan legislative committee in 2010.

Staff allocations typically occur at the district level, but the initiative would mandate an average of 22-25 students per class in grades 4 through 12 statewide.

In kindergarten through third grade, the mandated average is already set at 15-17 students per class — a result of the state Supreme Court’s 2012 McCleary decision, which determined the Legislature had not fulfilled its “paramount duty” to amply fund public education, as found in the Washington state constitution.

In January 2013 the Washington State Institute for Public Policy — the Legislature’s research arm — published a report that assesses 53 independent studies on class size and student performance. The report states this as its bottom-line finding:

“In the earliest K-12 grades, reducing class size has a high probability of producing a favorable outcome — that is, where the long-term benefits of reducing class size consistently exceed the costs. In the upper grades, on the other hand, reducing class size poses a substantial risk of an unfavorable outcome — that is, where costs may often exceed benefits.”

In September, the court found the Legislature in contempt for failing to meet McCleary requirements. However, it does not plan to issue to any sanctions until after the 2015 legislative session to provide time for the Legislature to respond.

It is unclear what kind of sanctions the court would issue if the Legislature does not provide a way to meet its requirements by the 2017-18 school year.

Sturm expressed concern about the supply and demand for teachers in Washington.

“We’re fortunate in Pullman to have access to a large pool of qualified teachers, but that’s not the case across the state,” he said.

Sturm noted I-1351 calls for more teachers but would not directly improve teacher training programs, which are faltering in some areas due to lack of funding.

“I think these would be competing issues,” he said. “If there’s not funding for one, there’s not funding for both.”

Sturm declined to say whether he will vote for or against the initiative.

“Conceptually I support smaller class sizes,” he said. “But I have some reservations about whether this initiative will take care of all our problems without possibly making some things worse.”​