For each of the past three years, it feels like Mariners fans have been having the same discussions in April.
“It’s early.” “Julio is a fraud.” “Julio will get going.” “The Marine Layer is ruining the offense.” “Wait til’ summer.” “Don’t judge the team too early.”
Raise your hand if you’ve heard those kinds of discussions before. Nobody is surprised.
In 2022, the Mariners got off to a slow start before going scorching hot in June and July. They surged to the playoffs and won their first playoff game since 2001. The next year, in 2023, the team got off to a similarly slow start before ramping things up with a historic August in which Julio Rodriguez played like an MVP. However, they still missed the playoffs by a single game. In 2024, the team got off to a 6-10 start before reeling off one of the best starting pitching months of all time in May. They took a ten-game lead in the division, but blew it and again missed the playoffs by a game. https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings
All three seasons, Julio Rodriguez has been a reason why the Mariners started slow, because he has started slow. It’s no secret that the Mariners’ young center-fielder struggles early in the year. So far, he’s always managed to heat up in the summer months and finish with respectable stat lines, but watching Jrod play in April and May tends to be frustrating.
Whether it’s the cold weather, the offseason adjustments or the adjustment back into the grind that is the MLB regular-season, it always seems like Rodriguez takes time to get going. This year, he is following similar trends.
So far in 2025, Rodriguez is slashing .188/.310/.365. He’s hit three home runs, stolen five bases and driven in eight runs through the Mariners’ first 22 games. Those numbers are not terrible; Rodriguez is sporting an OPS+ of 100, making him a perfectly average bat, and his defense and base running have helped him accumulate 0.4 WAR, which still puts him on pace for a three-win season.
Still, Julio has been a far cry from his career slashline of .273/.332/.462. His career OPS+ of 129 is significantly better than he’s been performing this season.
Yet, the Mariners have been doing fine. They bounced back from a 4-8 start, having won eight of their last ten games. Currently, the team is 12-10, a game behind the first-place Texas Rangers. Not only are they right in the AL Playoff Picture, the underlying data backs it up. PECOTA projections are currently projecting the Mariners to be the best team in the American League by the end of the season. They are projected to win 88.2 games, slightly more than the Toronto Blue Jays, projected to win 87.8.
This string of success, coinciding with yet another Jrod cold streak to start the season, is a sign of great things to come in Seattle. While, of course, nothing is guaranteed, the Mariners tend to play better when Julio is hot. If they can be an above-average team when he’s cold, imagine what it could look like in July once the superstar version of Julio comes back out of his shell.
At 22 games, it is far too early to declare this a down year for Rodriguez. He’s always improved in the summer as the season goes on, so chances are he will do it again in his fourth big-league season.
However, it is not too early to start getting excited about the team in Seattle. Despite some serious holes at second base, third base and first base, and a low level of production from their lead off hitter (Julio), the team is a game out of first place and continues to find ways to grit out wins. They recently won a competitive 12-inning game in Toronto, with veteran first baseman Rowdy Tellez providing the game-winning grand slam.
Things should only get better from here for the Mariners, and there is a good chance playoff baseball could soon return to Seattle.
