Editor’s note: All statistics are as of July 7.
Currently, the baseball world is in a tense debate. The topic being, whether Aaron Judge or Cal Raleigh will be the American League MVP.
On paper the answer seems obvious: the guy who is second in the league in home runs (33) and RBIs (74), and first in hits (119) and OPS (1.202).
That would be Judge, who is putting on a show for Yankees fans. Considering this, it would make sense that he should be the AL MVP, right? Not exactly.
Although Judge is leading the league in most offensive categories, Raleigh is neck and neck with him in many respects. For example, Raleigh is right behind Judge for OPS at 1.021, is tied with him for RBIs at 74, has stolen more bases (9 vs. 6), has struck out less (97 vs. 101) and, most importantly, leads the league in home runs at 35.
Even with this in mind, it still seems Judge would be the inevitable MVP recipient. However, there are other factors that traditional stats can’t explain.
Park Factors and the Marine Layer
T-Mobile Park (home of the Seattle Mariners) is without a doubt one of the worst ballparks for hitters. According to Baseball Savant, which analyses the “Park Factors” for all MLB fields, Seattle is ranked among the worst for almost every offensive category (note: 100 is considered average for every metric). Seattle is dead last for hits, runs and singles, each with a ranking below 90. T-Mobile Park is also 26th for doubles, 27th for triples, 27th for Hard Hit rate, 20th for home runs and dead last for overall Park Factor at 91. Statistically speaking, T-Mobile Park is purgatory for big league hitters.
On the flip side, Yankee Stadium is about middle of the pack. New York’s overall Park Factor is 100, making the park perfectly average. The same is true for runs where it ranks 13th. Yankee Stadium is second for Hard Hit rate at 105 and third for home runs at 120. New York may not be the best hitter’s park, but it is far from being the worst.
Additionally, Yankee Stadium has slightly shorter fences both in right and left field. Their left field fence is 318 feet as opposed to 331 in Seattle. Right field is 314 feet compared to 326 for the Mariners. This slight difference may not seem like a lot but can be the difference between a game-changing homer and a warning track flyout.
All these factors come to one conclusion: Raleigh is hitting in a more challenging ballpark. Although they don’t play every game in Seattle, the number of games he does play there should be taken into account when looking at his production at the plate.
Switch hitting magic
Raleigh is not just mashing balls from one side of the plate, but two. 14 homeruns from the right side and 21 from the left. Being an elite hitter in the MLB is hard enough from one batter’s box, yet somehow Raleigh has found success with both. He is slugging 0.943 against righties and an outstanding 1.208 against lefties. Essentially, it doesn’t matter who you start on the mound or lean on in the bullpen, Raleigh will find a way to hit against them regardless of what arm they throw with.
However, some may argue that this gives Raleigh an advantage that Judge doesn’t have. It is harder for hitters to hit pitchers who throw on the same side as them, for example righty-on-righty or lefty-on-lefty. Given that Judge only bats from the right side and has faced considerably more right-handed pitchers than lefties, this does make his accomplishments impressive. Raleigh on the other hand can switch sides of the plate to give himself an advantage every at-bat.

Aaron Judge points to the crowd after hitting a homerun
All this considered, Raleigh’s ability to switch hit is uniquely difficult. Few hitters can switch hit successfully at the highest level, let alone do it at all. It adds another depth to his success that makes his case for MVP even more convincing.
Position difficulty
With all due respect to outfielders (I was one myself), catching is a far tougher position. Calling pitches, running the defense, blocking balls, wearing foul balls off the body, throwing out runners and not to mention the strain on the knees. The workload and grind of being behind the dish is something that outfielders like Judge don’t have to deal with.
Having to be a brick wall behind the dish for nine innings while also leading the league in home runs makes what Raleigh is doing even more special.
Most “Valuable” Player on the team
While Judge is hitting the ball incredibly well, it is important to keep in mind he still plays for the Yankees. The team is coming off a World Series appearance last season and, while not quite the same team they were in October, are still one of the best in baseball. Paul Goldschmidt, Cody Bellinger, Trent Grisham, Jazz Chisholm, Ben Rice and Austin Wells make up a star-studded lineup of quality hitters who can back up Judge.
Raleigh on the other hand isn’t quite as lucky. Besides Raleigh, the Mariners only have one qualified player (minimum of 3.1 plate appearances per scheduled game) batting above 0.250, whereas the Yankees have four. The Mariners only have one qualified player slugging above 0.400 as opposed to the Yankees’ five. Seattle also have just two players with an OPS above 0.700 despite the Yankees having five.
Essentially, Judge has teammates who can hit before and after him, making it more likely to pick up RBIs and runs scored. Raleigh, however, does not have the same luxury. He is not quite carrying the team, but is undoubtedly the largest factor contributing to their success. This means that between the two, both of whom are the most valuable on their teams, Raleigh is more valuable for his squad.

Cal Raleigh celebrates with teammates after belting a solo homer in the sixth inning of the Mariners’ victory over the Pirates.
Playing a harder position, in a tougher ballpark, on a worse team, from both sides of the plate all contribute to Raleigh’s candidacy for AL MVP. With the All-Star break approaching, and still half a season left to play, there is still plenty of time for things to shift in either player’s direction. With that being said, should all things stay constant, Cal should be the clear front-runner for AL MVP.



