1 – Ohio State – The Buckeyes have had a cupcake of a schedule all season aside from their Texas week one game. However, the only game they care about every year aside from the CFP is the team “Up North” (Michigan). Last season when the Buckeyes won the National Championship their lone loss came to Michigan who was terrible. The Wolverines have won eight of their last nine and while the Buckeyes are miles more talented, it does not matter in a rivalry game.
2 – Indiana – You could make a legit argument they should be No.1 instead of OSU. The Hoosiers have put up a lot of points offensively and while QB Fernando Mendoza does not pass the name check, he passes the elite check. They play Purdue to end their season which means they will be 12-0 heading into the Big10 championship game. If the Hoosiers want to become the top dog in the Big10 it’s pivotal they beat Ohio State/Oregon in the championship game.
3 – Georgia – While they have one loss and A&M is undefeated, if my life was on the line I believe the Bulldogs would beat A&M. Georgia has beaten Ole Miss, Texas, Auburn, Tennessee and only lost by three to Alabama. Kirby Smart is the most accomplished coach in CFB and no matter the lack of name value on his roster he finds ways to win.
4 – Texas A&M – The best wins for the Aggies were against Notre Dame, LSU and Missouri. A&M almost lost to South Carolina, being down 30-3 at half time. I cannot get over that game, there were tons of signs that Marcel Reed and the Aggie offense can be limited. A&M in all likelihood will be in the SEC championship game against UGA/Ole Miss.
5 – Alabama – Call it SEC bias or say I do not know the ball. If the Ducks played at Tuscaloosa against the Tide they would run out the building. While in the Big10 the Ducks are great in the SEC it’s a different world. Alabama has been tested all season, especially after losing a fluke game to Florida State. Kalen Deboer had enormous shoes to fill after the retirement of Nick Saban, he has fared well so far aside from the FSU loss and losing to Vandy last season.
6 – Oregon – Dan Lanning is one hell of a coach but his team is not physical enough to compete with the teams listed ahead. Dante Moore has played well but against the Hoosiers he struggled and the offense could not get going at all. Oregon just put the hammer to USC 42-27, their defense looks worrisome at times but against a Lincoln Riley offense you cannot blame them.
7 – Ole Miss – Lane Kiffin has been rumored to be interested in the LSU/Penn State head coaching job. While Kiffin has not said he wants to leave he has also not said he wants to stay. Kiffin’s personality has always been a little conceited but in a funny and cool way. With rumors LSU offered him $90 million and $25 million in NIL it can gauge his interest heavily. I say all that to say if Kiffin leaves before the CFP, Ole Miss should not make the CFP unless it’s a battle between them or BYU/Vandy.
8 – Notre Dame – Marcus Freeman looks like how the Fighting Irish perform. They block clean like his skin and Jeremiyah Love cuts sharp like Freeman’s hairline. The Irish started the season 0-2 but are on a nine game winning streak since then. Losing to A&M and Miami by a combined four points, however the offense has turned it around scoring 50+ points in nearly four different games. With only Stanford left the road to the CFP is in the hands of the Irish.
9 – Texas Tech – NIL funding is why the Red Raiders are good, there is nothing in Lubbock, Texas but money and sports. Tech has played two ranked teams (BYU and Utah) and they blew both teams out. Behren Morton has 2,100 passing yards and 17 touchdowns, however the offense is not what makes the Raiders dangerous their All-American Linebacker Jacob Rodriguez does.
10 – Oklahoma – The Sooners have quietly had one of the most complete defenses in the country, which feels wild to say about Oklahoma football. John Mateer has not been what they imagined but he has been serviceable. Their résumé is not elite, but the eye test shows a program trending up at the right time, especially after beating Alabama.
11 – BYU – BYU is the most confusing team in the nation because they deserve to be in the CFP but they would make it so boring and get blown out like SMU. They lost to Texas Tech earlier in the season 29-7 and against a top SEC or Big10 team I do not want to imagine what would happen.
12 – Vanderbilt – Clark Lea has turned Vandy into the most annoying team to play in the SEC. They hang around, they hit hard, they don’t beat themselves, and their two losses were both one-score games. The Commodores are not talented enough to beat UGA or Bama, but they can ruin a New Year’s Six bid for someone.
13 – Texas – The Longhorns are the most talented team outside the top ten, but they collapse when adversity hits. Arch Manning looks elite one moment and then looks like he forgot the playbook the next. Texas beating Vandy was nice, but losing to Georgia and OSU killed their season unless they could find a way to beat A&M.
14 – Miami – Mario Cristobal has the Hurricanes relevant again, but the offense still feels stuck in second gear. Carson Beck was not the answer at UGA and was never going to be it at Miami. With CFP out of the playoffs a nice bowl win is still on the table.
15 – Utah – Kyle Whittingham gets more out of less than any coach in America aside from Kirby Smart. Utah has a high scoring offense, their defense hits like a truck and their special teams are elite. They are the classic team no one wants to see in a bowl game because they will drag you into the mud.
16 – Michigan – Michigan fell off a cliff after losing their playmakers and half their staff, and it shows every week. The Wolverines still have size and power, but no explosiveness and no identity. The only games Michigan will be looking forward to in the coming years is the yearly rivalry game against Ohio State. 2023 was Michigans last year this decade to be seen as a threat.
17 – Tennessee – Josh Heupel’s offense works against average defenses but collapses against teams with a pass rush. The Vols are good, not great, and their ranking shows it. While they are the top middle of the pact SEC team with a win against Vandy to end the season would bode nice for a top bowl game.
18 – Virginia – This is the most under the radar turnaround in college football. UVA went from a doormat to a legitimately tough ACC team with a top-20 defense. It will be interesting to see how well they can fare in the tough bowl game they get.
19 – USC – Lincoln Riley has always been an offensive genius but his defense has always been mediocre. USC’s defense is allergic to tackling and their offense is explosive but turnover prone. Until Riley proves he can build a real defense, the Trojans will stay outside the CFP picture.
20 – UNT – North Texas being this high is insane, but they have earned every bit of it with their offense. The one loss from the Mean Green came against USF, which brings in some question marks on how good they really are.
21 – JMU – JMU is the best “new” powerhouse in the sun belt conference. Their defense is disciplined, their offense is efficient and they do not beat themselves. The Dukes are 10-1 after beating WSU 24-17, which is a bigger differential than Virginia and Ole Miss had against WSU.
22 – Tulane – Tulane is the definition of stable and well-coached. They still run the ball well and play strong defense, which keeps them competitive. They just lack explosive plays.
23 – Georgia Tech – Haynes King is the most chaotic quarterback in the country… elite one play, disastrous the next. The Yellow Jackets have two top-25 wins but also two embarrassing losses. They are a fun team, just not a trustworthy one. Georgia Tech plays their Super Bowl against Georgia this weekend.
24 – Pitt – Pitt has no offense but has a top-10 defense, which is the most Pitt thing ever. They drag everyone into slow, ugly games and hope you make mistakes. It works against average teams but collapses against elite ones. In the last two weeks Pitt has played two top 25 teams (Notre Dame and Georgia Tech) to end their season they play ranked Miami. Being ranked a top 25 team is the highlight of Pitt’s season and if they want to keep it they need to find a way to beat UGA.
25 – Washington (UW) – The Huskies are a shell of the CFP team they were in 2023 Losing Penix, Odunze, and DeBoer gutted the program. Hiring Jedd Fisch was a neutral move, not bad but not overly good either. Fisch is rebuilding but also winning. The Huskies have potential to be a top-20 team next season if they can retain certain key players and utilize the transfer portal.
