The Seahawks are set to begin their season this weekend on Sept. 8 with a home game against the Denver Broncos, and while it is always exciting to dream of playoffs and Super Bowls, it is also important to keep expectations realistic.
This rendition of the Seahawks is one that has not been a Super Bowl contender for the past three years. While they did make a wild card appearance in 2022-23 and were a frisky wild card contender in 2023-24, they have not been competitive for an NFC West title, and barring significant improvement across the board, they likely will not be at the same level as the 49ers and Rams this year.
Instead of hoping for the playoffs and being disappointed, I suggest Seahawks fans look for something else in 2024; discovery. The Seahawks have a lot to discover this year, first and foremost being new head coach Mike Macdonald.
As the youngest head coach in the NFL MacDonald is somewhat of a question mark. He led the league’s top defense last year as the Defensive Coordinator for the Baltimore Ravens, but that is not a sure bet of success. Some defensive coordinators have flourished as head coaches, such as Dan Quinn, Ron Rivera, Mike Vrabel and of course the legendary Bill Belichek. Others have struggled making the transition from coordinator to head coach, such as Robert Saleh, Matt Patricia, Eric Mangini, Romeo Crennell and Vic Fangio.
As much as the Seahawks hope Macdonald will come in and immediately be brilliant, history tells us that is not always the case. Seattle needs to discover if Macdonald is the right fit as head coach. That does not mean he has to lead the team to a winning record in year one. It does mean he has to display potential.
Will the team buy into Macdonald in the same way they bought into Pete Carroll? Will they play hard for him no matter what? The Seahawks face a difficult eight-game stretch from weeks three through eleven. They take on the Dolphins, Lions, Giants, 49ers, Falcons, Bills, Rams and 49ers, a brutal gauntlet of seven teams favored by Vegas to make the playoffs (only the Giants are not).
By the time the Seahawks play the Cardinals on Nov. 24, they may already be well out of the playoff picture, but they will still have seven games to go. Those last seven games will say a lot about the team’s competitiveness and Macdonald’s ability to lead. If they are, say, 3-7 or 4-6 through the first ten games, will they throw in the towel? Or will they continue to fight to the finish?
The Seahawks will also need to discover if Geno Smith or Sam Howell can be the franchise’s long-term quarterback. Smith, now 34, enters his third year with the Seahawks and has one year left on his contract. Smith had a fine 2023 season, but his 64.7 completion percentage and 20 touchdowns were a far cry from his 2022 campaign, which saw him lead the league with a 69.8 completion percentage and finish in the top-5 with 30 touchdown passes.
Smith could prove 2022 was not a fluke with another strong season in 2024. However, if his numbers decline again, it may turn out that 2022 was more of a mirage and the real Geno Smith is closer to the guy he was for most of his career; a fringe starter who struggles against good defenses.
If Smith does struggle, and the season goes sour, the team would be smart to give Sam Howell a shot. The third-year player was traded from the Commanders to the Seahawks last April. He showed flashes of potential with Washington, but was benched three times and ultimately shipped off to be a backup. He is young enough that there could still be a franchise QB inside of him, but the Seahawks need to discover his talent sooner than later.
2025 would be a perfect year for Seattle to draft a QB. Prospects such as Shedeur Sanders, Jalen Milroe, Carson Beck, Quinn Ewers and Cam Ward make up a strong class of quarterbacks for the draft. After five QBs were taken in the first round last year, the market for the NFL’s premier position may not be as competitive. Thus, it would be wise for the Seahawks to make a primary goal of 2024 to discover what they have in Sam Howell, to determine if they should draft a QB next April.
The Seahawks also need to discover their identity on offense. New offensive coordinator Ryan Gubb has had success at the collegiate level, but it remains to be seen if his pass-heavy offense will translate at an NFL level.
Will Jaxon Smith-Njigba take the next step and become a top receiver in the NFL? Will DK Metcalf bounce back after just 66 catches in 2023, his fewest since his rookie season? What about Tyler Lockett, who is now entering his age-31 season? His 894 yards in 2023 were his fewest since 2017. How does he fit into the future of the offense as his career enters its later stages?
These questions can all be answered in 2024. Even if the team only wins five or six games, discoveries about Mike Macdonald, the quarterback room, and the offensive identity would make this season a success. If Seattle can come out of 2024 feeling good about their coach, quarterback and offense, it will be a huge win for their long-term future.
