*Seeds:

1 Oregon

2 Georgia

3 Miami

4 BYU

5 Ohio State

6 Texas

7 Penn State

8 LSU

9 Tennessee

10 Indiana

11 Texas A&M

12 Boise State

*Seeds are not what the teams are ranked. Miami and BYU are not ranked third and fourth in the country. They are the third and fourth seeds due to the top four highest-ranked conference champions being top four seeds and receiving byes. The fifth-highest-ranked conference champion gets a spot in the playoff. Boise State is not ranked 12th in the country. 

When looking at the bubble teams’ resumes, it’s hard to look past the key wins Clemson, Iowa State and Notre Dame have. The answer is none. Notre Dame has an SOS of 55. That is thirty spots below the worst SOS of the SEC teams on the bubble (Tennessee). Clemson has played two teams with a winning record, Georgia, who they lost to by 31 and only scored three points against, and Virginia, who might not have a winning record at the end of the season, and they still gave up 31 points. Iowa State’s opponents with winning records in the FBS are Arkansas State and Iowa, both 4-3. It sure feels like the SEC and Big Ten bubble teams would also be undefeated or have one loss with the same schedules. 

Alabama is also in the mix. If they can split with LSU and Missouri, they have a great path to finish 9-3. Alabama’s four ranked opponents would be three more than Iowa State and two more than Clemson. If the Crimson Tide had a similar schedule, to the Cyclones they would probably finish 11-1.

Indiana puts the rest of the Big Ten on notice. The Hoosiers put a drubbing on Nebraska, 56-7. If you don’t think they are a playoff team, then you aren’t watching Indiana. 

Georgia takes their place as the SEC AQ spot after beating Texas, 30-15. Texas is still one of the top teams in the country and this loss doesn’t change their place in the playoffs much and the rest of their schedule is manageable. The Bulldogs, on the other hand, travel to Oxford and then host Tennessee the following week.

Texas A&M sits atop the SEC and their 31-point win against Missouri is better than any other win the teams on the bubble have. They also have a better SOS and SOR. 

Tennessee makes its way into the bracket, as beating Alabama is a good win. The Volunteers need to take care of business, and if they do they will make the playoffs.

Army keeps closing the gap with Boise State. The Broncos were the clear favorite and it felt like they would need to make a mistake for the Black Knights to take over the Group of Five spot. However, the further into the season we get, the better Army looks. Army is already 6-0 in conference play, so they only have two conference games remaining. It’s also good to note that the Army-Navy game does not count toward the selection committee since it is after Selection Sunday.

Group of Five Power Rankings:

1. Boise State
2. Army
3. Navy
4. UNLV