The first college football playoff rankings came out on Nov. 5 and in them, the WSU Cougars were ranked No. 21. In order to make the playoff, they need to be in the top 12, meaning they need to climb nine spots over the next month. How can they do it?

STEP 1: Handle their business.

The Cougars can not lose another game. Preferably, they can not even afford a close loss. Utah State, Nevada, Oregon State, and Wyoming should all be wins by at least seven points, and the larger the margins, the better. A loss would be a knife into the Cougars CFP chances.

STEP 2: Boise State wins out, wins Mountain West

The Cougars’ only loss is on the road against Boise State. The better Boise State can be, the better it makes the Cougs look. Boise State needs to win out, and win the Mountain West to secure a playoff spot for themselves. There is virtually no path to the playoffs for the Cougs if Boise State does not also make the playoff. If, for example, Boise State were to lose a game and Army claims the G5 bid instead of them, WSU would effectively be eliminated.

STEP 3: Texas Tech needs to win out

Texas Tech should not have any trouble with Oklahoma State and West Virginia, but their game against Colorado this weekend will be massive for the Cougs for two reasons. First, Texas Tech winning out would give them a 9-3 record, giving the Cougs a legitimately good win (and potentially a ranked win). Second, Colorado is only one spot ahead of the Cougars in the CFP rankings. WSU needs the schools ahead of them to start losing, and that would be a great start.

STEP 4: Big 12 only gets one team in

The Big 12 currently only has one team in the CFP, which is No. 9 BYU. However, both Iowa State and Kansas State are ranked ahead of the Cougars as well. In order to guarantee that the Big 12 only gets one team in, both Iowa State and Kansas State will have to lose at least one more time. The easiest way for that to happen would be for Iowa State to beat Kansas State when they play on Nov. 30. That would set up an Iowa State vs BYU rematch in the Big 12 title game. If BYU wins, they would hand Iowa State a second loss, and eliminate them from playoff contention.

STEP 5: ACC only gets one team in

This one is a bit more complicated. The ACC features Miami (No. 4), SMU (No. 13), Pitt (No. 18), Louisville (No. 22), and Clemson (No. 23). The Cougars need SMU and Pitt to lose, but preferably also need Clemson to lose a game as well, just to be safe. Louisville, at 6-3, probably won’t be a threat.

Here’s the clearest path to making that happen. Pitt plays Clemson and Louisville. WSU needs Pitt to lose at least one of those games, preferably both. If Clemson beats Pitt, the CFP committee could elevate them above WSU, in which case they would need to lose their season finale against South Carolina (6-3), a very possible outcome. Just for added measure, a Kentucky win over Louisville would be helpful as well.

That would leave SMU and Miami to compete in the ACC title game, and WSU needs a resounding Miami win. A two-loss SMU might still be ranked ahead of the Cougars, so WSU should still hope SMU gets upset somewhere along the way. Their best chance to lose is probably at Virginia (4-4) or hosting Boston College (4-4). They also host Cal (4-4), but the Golden Bears are winless so far in the ACC.

STEP 6: Notre Dame beats Army

As tempting as it is to hope for Notre Dame to be upset by Army, there is a chance the CFP would view Army’s win over Notre Dame as more impressive than Boise State’s narrow loss to Oregon. If that is the case, Army could steal the G5 spot, and effectively end WSU’s playoff hopes.

STEP 7: Georgia and Texas take care of business against Ole Miss and Texas A&M

Ole Miss (7-2) and Texas A&M (7-2) are both currently ranked ahead of the Cougs. However, Ole Miss still has to play Georgia, and Texas A&M plays Texas. If either of those games turn out to be upsets, it would complicate the Cougars’ playoff chances. WSU needs the No. 3 and No. 5 schools to handle their business and eliminate two of their SEC rivals from playoff contention.

STEP 8: SEC Chaos. LSU and Alabama both lose once more

Here’s where things get really tricky. LSU and Alabama both need to lose once more. Those two schools play this weekend, meaning one of them absolutely will lose at least one more time. The problem is, after their game this weekend, neither school has a “tough” game left on the schedule, which is why many analysts are treating this weekend’s game as essentially a “win-and-in” game. The toughest school either team faces after this weekend is Vanderbilt, who plays LSU on Nov. 23. So the best outcome would be for LSU to beat Alabama but lose to Vanderbilt. If Alabama beats LSU, WSU would need to root for them to be upset in the Iron Bowl by Auburn, which has happened before. Another possibility if both LSU and Alabama win their games could be a Tennessee upset to Vanderbilt.

If all goes according to plan, that would lead to a potential playoff field of

1. Oregon 13-0
2. Georgia 12-1
3. Miami 13-0
4. BYU 13-0
5. Ohio State 11-2* projected loss to Oregon in Big 12 Title Game
6. Texas 11-2* projected loss to Georgia in SEC title game
7. Penn State 11-1
8. Indiana 11-1* projected loss to Ohio State
9. Notre Dame 11-1
10. Tennessee 10-2* projected loss to Georgia
11. Boise State 12-1
12. WSU 11-1

Is it still possible that an 11-2 SMU or Iowa State, or a 9-3 LSU, gets the nod over WSU? Of course, that is possible, maybe even likely depending on how biased the committee is. That’s why WSU should be rooting for chaos no matter what.

Here are a few other things that strengthen WSU’s playoff hopes.

STEP 9: UW keeps winning

At least, against UCLA. If Washington loses out, they would miss a bowl game, and significantly weaken WSU’s strength of schedule. At least if Washington beats UCLA, they would guarantee a bowl game. Any other wins would be a bonus. If UW beats Penn State or Oregon, it would shake up the playoff picture and really help WSU’s strength of schedule.

STEP 10: Indiana, Notre Dame, Penn State, and Tennessee suffer upsets

I’ve laid out a clear picture to WSU making the playoffs along with those four teams. However, it would not hurt the Cougars for any of them to lose. Indiana plays Michigan this week, and a loss would really hurt their chances. Notre Dame can’t lose to Army, but if they get upset by USC or Virginia, their playoff chances are likely over. Tennessee already is likely to lose to Georgia, and if they were to also lose against Vanderbilt, they would not be a playoff team. And if Penn State were to lose to Washington or Minnesota, it would not hurt either.

STEP 11: As many Mountain West teams qualify for a bowl game as possible

The more WSU opponents in bowl games, the better. Fresno State needs one more win. If they were to beat Colorado State and/or UCLA, it would boost the Cougs’ resume. SJSU also needs one more win, which could come against Oregon State or Stanford. An SJSU win against UNLV would be extra helpful, although it is probably unlikely. Oregon State also needs two more wins to reach a bowl game, although it can’t be against WSU or Boise State. That means the Cougars should root for OSU to beat Air Force and SJSU, and root for SJSU to beat Stanford. That would mean that both OSU and SJSU will have six wins.

Hawaii would need two more wins to reach a bowl game. Those could come against Utah State and New Mexico. And SDSU needs three more wins, which could also be against Utah State, New Mexico, and Air Force. There is a real opportunity for Fresno State, SJSU, OSU, Hawaii, and SDSU to all win six games, and the Cougars will root for as many as possible.

With all of that being said, here is an official rooting guide for WSU fans this week. Games in BOLD are more important games. Games in italics are games that would be helpful but are not as essential.

Week 11: 

WSU to beat Utah State

Georgia to beat Ole Miss

Texas Tech to beat Colorado

LSU to beat Alabama

Boise State to beat Nevada

SDSU to beat New Mexico

OSU to beat SJSU

Virginia Tech to beat Clemson

Michigan to beat Indiana

Washington to beat Penn State

Fresno State to beat Air Force

And any additional upsets

Week 12: 

Washington State to beat New Mexico 

Clemson to beat Pitt

Boise State to beat SJSU

Washington to beat UCLA

Georgia to beat Tennessee

Hawaii to beat Utah State

Oregon State to beat Air Force

Boston College to beat SMU

Virginia to beat Notre Dame

And any additional upsets

Week 13: 

Washington State to beat OSU

Vanderbilt to beat LSU

Texas Tech to beat Oklahoma State

Louisville to beat Pitt

Notre Dame to beat Army

Boise State to beat Wyoming

SJSU to beat UNLV

Auburn to beat Texas A&M

Virginia to beat SMU

Ohio State to beat Indiana

Minnesota to beat Penn State

SDSU to beat Utah State

Fresno State to beat Colorado State

And any additional upsets

Week 14: 

Washington State to beat Wyoming

Texas to beat Texas A&M

Boise State to beat OSU

Texas Tech to beat West Virginia

Iowa State to beat Kansas State 

SJSU to beat Stanford

Fresno State to beat UCLA

SDSU to beat Air Force

Hawaii to beat New Mexico

Auburn to beat Alabama

Vanderbilt to beat Tennessee

Kentucky to beat Louisville

South Carolina to beat Clemson

Cal to beat SMU

Washington to beat Oregon

USC to beat Notre Dame

And any additional upsets

Week 15: Conference Playoffs

Boise State to win Mountain West

Miami to win ACC, beat SMU

BYU to win Big 12, beat Iowa State