The second edition of the college football playoff rankings came out on Nov. 12 and in them, the WSU Cougars were ranked No. 18. In order to make the playoff, they need to be in the top 12, meaning they need to climb six spots over the next month. They moved up by three spots after their 49-28 win at home over Utah State. How can they finish the job and reach the top 12?

The path narrowed considerably last weekend despite the Cougs win and their improved ranking. That’s because Colorado (7-2) defeated Texas Tech, the last tough game on their schedule. That hurt, as a Texas Tech win would have both propelled the Cougs ahead of Colorado in the rankings and boosted their resume. Another key game that did not go the Cougs way was the Ole Miss win over Georgia. A loss to Georgia would have likely sunk Ole Miss below WSU in the rankings, and ended their playoff bid. Instead, Ole Miss now appears a likely playoff team, and Georgia also remains ahead of WSU with only two losses.

In fact, last week could not have gone much worse for the Cougs in terms of the teams they were rooting against. Let’s check in on how it went.

Georgia lost to Ole Miss and Texas Tech lost to Colorado, both games that did not go the Cougs way. Also not going there way was the Alabama vs LSU game. WSU would have benefited from an LSU win, as the Tigers are weaker and more likely to suffer an upset in the final three games. Alabama’s win essentially locks them into the CFP, which is another blow to WSU’s chances.

Elsewhere, SDSU and OSU both lost, to New Mexico and SJSU. This hurts because it removes both SDSU and OSU from bowl eligibility. The Cougs would have benefited from more wins over bowl teams. SJSU did become bowl-eligible with their win, but they were already on track to win at least six. Meanwhile, Fresno State, another team the Cougs narrowly beat, lost to Air Force (2-7). Fresno State could still become bowl-eligible with a win over either Colorado State or UCLA, however, they will be underdogs in both of those games. Another tough loss for the Cougs SOS and a future Pac-12 team.

Penn State and Indiana handled their business against Michigan and Washington, and Clemson beat Virginia Tech. Miami was upset, but with only one loss, they are still comfortably ahead of WSU.

There were a few bright spots. Iowa State’s second loss in a row ends their CFP chances, as does the Pitt loss to Virginia. And Boise State avoided a disaster by beating Nevada by seven, keeping the Cougars best path alive.

Here is what they have to do the rest of the way.

STEP 1: Handle their business.

The Cougars can not lose another game. Preferably, they can not even afford a close loss. Nevada, Oregon State, and Wyoming should all be won by at least seven points, and the larger the margins, the better. A loss would be a knife into the Cougars’ CFP chances.

STEP 2: Boise State wins out, wins Mountain West

The Cougars’ only loss is on the road against Boise State. The better Boise State can be, the better it makes the Cougs look. Boise State needs to win out and win the Mountain West to secure a playoff spot for themselves. There is virtually no path to the playoffs for the Cougs if Boise State does not also make the playoffs. If, for example, Boise State were to lose a game and Army claimed the G5 bid instead of them, WSU would effectively be eliminated.

STEP 3: Big 12 only gets one team in

The Big 12 currently only has one team in the CFP, which is No. 6 BYU. However, both Colorado (No. 17) and Kansas State (No. 16) are ranked ahead of the Cougars as well. In order to guarantee that the Big 12 only gets one team in, both Colorado (7-2) and Kansas State (7-2) will have to lose at least one more time. The easiest way for that to happen would be for Iowa State (7-2) to beat Kansas State when they play on Nov. 30.

That would set up a Colorado vs BYU match in the Big 12 title game. If BYU wins, they would hand Colorado a third loss, and eliminate them from playoff contention. If WSU can finish 11-1, they should be ranked ahead of a 10-3 Colorado team. There’s also the possibility of an upset. Utah was competitive against BYU and could surprise Colorado next week.

STEP 4: ACC only gets one team in

The ACC currently features Miami (No. 9), SMU (No. 14), Louisville (No. 19), and Clemson (No. 20). The Cougars need to jump ahead of either SMU or Miami and stay ahead of Clemson. Louisville, at 6-3, is only a spot behind WSU in the CFP rankings, but with three losses it’s hard to see a scenario where they jump Wazzu.

SMU and Miami are barrelling towards a meeting in the ACC championship game, and the Cougars need whoever wins to win resoundingly. Neither team has played a particularly tough schedule, and SMU does not have a single ranked win (Pitt is now unranked). If Miami beats SMU in the ACC title game, it likely ends their chances at a CFP bid. It is still not completely certain that the committee would rank an 11-1 Wazzu squad over an 11-2 SMU (or an 11-2 Miami), but there is a better chance WSU could get ahead of SMU than Miami.

Clemson, meanwhile has difficult games against Pitt and South Carolina remaining. For good measure, the Cougars should root for at least one more loss. And Louisville could also lose to Pitt or Kentucky. Preferably, Pitt should not win both games against Clemson and Louisville, or else the CFP could re-evaluate and bring Pitt back into the fold.

It would still be helpful if either Miami or SMU could lose a second game before the ACC title game. A three-loss ACC team will not be ranked over WSU, but a two-loss ACC team might. SMU could lose to Virginia (5-4), Boston College (5-4) or Cal (5-4). Meanwhile, Miami could lose to Syracuse (6-3) or Wake Forest (4-5). If either SMU or Miami does lose before the ACC title game, WSU would then root for the team with the better record to eliminate the two-loss team for good.

STEP 5: Notre Dame beats Army but loses to either Virginia or USC

As tempting as it is to hope for Notre Dame to be upset by Army, there is a chance the CFP would view Army’s win over Notre Dame as more impressive than Boise State’s narrow loss to Oregon. If that is the case, Army could steal the G5 spot, and effectively end WSU’s playoff hopes.

However, now that the SEC is likely to get four playoff teams (before the Ole Miss win, that was not as likely of an outcome), the Cougars would really benefit from a Notre Dame loss. Virginia just upset Pitt, could they do it again and beat Notre Dame? Or could USC find life in their final game against their rival? Notre Dame did lose to NIU, so anything is possible.

STEP 6: Texas takes care of Texas A&M

One of the six schools WSU needs to jump ahead of is Texas A&M. They play Texas in the last game of their season on Nov. 30. The Cougars need Texas to win, hand Texas A&M a third loss and eliminate them from the CFP mix.

STEP 7: SEC Chaos

The above steps would help the Cougars move ahead of Colorado, Kansas State, Texas A&M, and SMU. If Notre Dame gets upset, it would also move them ahead of Notre Dame, but that’s not a given.

Still, that would leave the Cougs at No. 14 (or No. 13 with a Notre Dame upset). No. 14 is good, but not good enough. The Cougars need some SEC chaos to make it happen. As it stands now, the following teams are essentially ‘locked’ into the playoffs, for better or worse: Oregon, Texas, Ohio State, Penn State, and Indiana. Throw in the winners of the ACC, Big 12, and G5, and you’ve got four spots remaining.

Competing for those final four spots are Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, Ole Miss and Notre Dame. The Cougars need to jump two of those five schools.

Let’s assume Notre Dame wins out. They should. They’ll be heavy favorites in each of their last three games. It means the Cougars need to jump two of the four SEC schools ahead of them.

Georgia plays Tennessee, and until the Ole Miss loss, it made sense to root for Georgia. Now, however, it feels like a Tennessee victory is the desired outcome. If Georgia loses a third game, they should not get an opportunity to make the playoffs. Of course, there is no telling how biased the CFP committee will be, but if a 9-3 Georgia team gets in over an 11-1 WSU or an 11-2 SMU, that would be a serious problem. IF Georgia beats Tennessee, then WSU would need to root for Tennessee to lose a third came, with their best bet being their rivalry game against Vanderbilt on Nov. 30.

That still leaves Ole Miss and Alabama, and the Cougars need one of them to lose a third game as well. Ole Miss gets Florida and Mississippi State, both likely easy wins. Alabama has Mercer, Oklahoma, and Auburn. The best chance there would be an Alabama loss to Auburn.

If everything goes according to the projections, it would leave a potential playoff field of:

1. Oregon 13-0* projected win in Big 10 title game
2. Texas 12-1* projected win in SEC title game
3. BYU 13-0* projected win in Big 12 title game
4. Miami 12-1* projected win in ACC title game
5. Ohio State 11-2* projected loss to Oregon in Big 12 Title Game
6. Tennessee 11-2* projected loss to Texas in SEC title game
7. Penn State 11-1
8. Indiana 11-1* projected loss to Ohio State
9. Notre Dame 11-1
10. Alabama 10-2
11. Ole Miss 10-2
12. Boise State 12-1
13. Washington State 11-1
14. SMU 11-2* projected loss to Miami in ACC title game
15. Georgia 9-3* projected loss to Tennessee
16. Colorado 10-3* projected loss to Big 12 title game

This leaves WSU on the outside looking in. Essentially, Tennessee has to beat Georgia, and then one of Notre Dame, Alabama or Ole Miss has to suffer an upset loss, and it can’t be an Army win over Notre Dame. Yeah, that feels like a lot.

Here are a few other things that strengthen WSU’s playoff hopes.

STEP 8: UW and Texas Tech win

Washington, at least, needs to win against UCLA. If Washington loses out, they would miss a bowl game, and significantly weaken WSU’s strength of schedule. If Washington beats UCLA, they would guarantee a bowl game. Any other wins would be a bonus. If UW beats Oregon, it would shake up the playoff picture and really help WSU’s strength of schedule.

Texas Tech meanwhile has two winnable games to close their schedule. If they win out they would finish 8-4, and right now that is the best win on WSU’s resume.

STEP 9: Penn State of Indiana gets upset

Perhaps more of a pipe dream, it’s still possible one of these Big 10 schools could be upset. Would the committee rank an 11-1 WSU over a 10-2 Penn State or Indiana? Unsure, but at the very least it wouldn’t hurt.

STEP 10: Fresno State and Hawaii become bowl-eligible.

At the moment, only two of WSU’s wins (Texas Tech & SJSU) are bowl eligible. The bad news is that SDSU and OSU will not be eligible (assuming UNLV beats SDSU and Boise State beats OSU), and neither will Utah State, New Mexico, or Wyoming (assuming the Cougars beat New Mexico). If Hawaii beats Utah State and New Mexico, they would finish 6-6, while Fresno State needs one more win over either Colorado State or UCLA.  If they can both reach eligibility and Washington does as well, it would at least give the Cougs five wins over bowl teams.

With all of that being said, here is an official rooting guide for WSU fans this week. Games in BOLD are more important games. Games in italics are games that would be helpful but are not as essential.

Week 12: 

Washington State to beat New Mexico 

Boise State to beat SJSU

Tennessee to beat Georgia

Washington to beat UCLA

Hawaii to beat Utah State

Utah to beat Colorado

Boston College to beat SMU

Virginia to beat Notre Dame

Pitt to beat Clemson

SDSU to beat UNLV

And any additional upsets

Week 13: 

Washington State to beat OSU

Notre Dame to beat Army

Boise State to beat Wyoming

Texas Tech to beat Oklahoma State

SJSU to beat UNLV

Auburn to beat Texas A&M

Virginia to beat SMU

Ohio State to beat Indiana

Minnesota to beat Penn State

SDSU to beat Utah State

Fresno State to beat Colorado State

Louisville to beat Pitt

And any additional upsets

Week 14: 

Washington State to beat Wyoming

Texas to beat Texas A&M

Boise State to beat OSU

Iowa State to beat Kansas State 

Texas Tech to beat West Virginia

SJSU to beat Stanford

Fresno State to beat UCLA

SDSU to beat Air Force

Hawaii to beat New Mexico

Auburn to beat Alabama

Vanderbilt to beat Tennessee

Kentucky to beat Louisville

South Carolina to beat Clemson

Cal to beat SMU

Washington to beat Oregon

USC to beat Notre Dame

And any additional upsets

Week 15: Conference Playoffs

Boise State to win Mountain West

Miami to win ACC, beat SMU

BYU to win Big 12, beat Colorado