After the soccer and volleyball teams filled the West Coast Conference with crimson and gray for the first time, women’s basketball now gets its turn. The WCC presents a new challenge for the Cougs, in some ways similar to the old Pac-12 but in many ways different from that. Most importantly, it represents the most critical stretch of the season for this team and features what is likely their only path to the tournament.
Going into this season, head coach Kamie Ethridge knew the team would need time to develop and adjust. She brought in seven new faces including six freshmen and the team features an impressive 10 international players. Ethridge’s roster only sports one senior in forward Tara Wallack, after losing five seniors and fifth-year players. WSU didn’t bring in a single NCAA transfer and is transitioning to a new conference. Yet Ethridge and the athletic department brought a challenge for this young team and in 11 games the players have truly been tested.
The team has faced the eighteenth toughest strength of schedule based on the opponent rating percentage index (RPI) so far and has faced five teams inside the top 75 of the current NCAA evaluation tool (NET) rankings. The schedule has presented plenty of opportunities to build a resume for a bid to the NCAA tournament come March, but the team has squandered those opportunities. In a transition period and with an infusion of youth, WSU has often looked overmatched and overwhelmed, yet Ethridge has continued to preach the importance of these games in helping the team improve.
“The reality is we have seven brand new players trying to fit into our system and learn our system and play together,” Ethridge said. “I think we’ve just got to really understand that it’s going to be a process and we’re not anywhere near our finished product. But I feel like we’re getting better on a daily basis and managing games a little bit better and I certainly feel like we might be prepared for what we will see coming forward just because of what we’ve already seen.”
Regardless of the importance of the learning experience, the Cougs have been dropping close games through second-half collapses and have been blown out by upper-tier programs. WSU is 0-3 in quadrant I games this year. The reality is, the team is not ready.
As WCC plays rolls around, WSU has a chance to reset and get back on track. The conference has an average RPI of just 156.3 and the highest-rated team outside of WSU is Portland at just 89. WSU currently sits at 80 despite its 5-6 record. The Cougs should be able to rack up a strong number of wins against weaker opponents to get to a relatively positive record. With 20 games remaining, a 20-win season isn’t necessarily out of the cards, but WSU will have a lot of work to do to reach that milestone.
Given shaky wins against Eastern Washington, Idaho and Norfolk State, the WCC is likely to be far from a walk in the park for WSU. This team tends to play games unnecessarily close and there’s no indication WSU won’t continue that trend even with the shift in the level of play during the conference schedule.
Even if the Cougs manage a 20-win season, that does not by any means guarantee them a spot in the tournament. Given the conference’s schedule strength this season and the absence of usual contenders like Gonzaga and Oregon State, wins against conference opponents aren’t likely to boost the team’s resume in the eyes of the tournament committee. This means the Cougs’ best path to the tournament comes through the conference championship, likely needing an automatic bid as the conference champion to dance in March Madness.
Albeit an attainable goal on the surface, WSU has only won a singular conference championship since the program started in 1970 and conference tournaments are a breeding ground for sleeper teams to emerge and upsets to end postseason hopes. The team is also adapting to a new conference and Ethridge said before the season the team will have to shift and adjust how it scouts for a completely new set of opponents.
The WCC is currently shaping up to have a very interesting and competitive race for the conference title. Portland is the favorite, still undefeated at 11-0 this season, and is one of the best-scoring teams in the country. The team is top 50 in both offensive rating and points per game and is one of the most efficient teams as well with a true shooting percentage of 57%, 26th in the nation. The Pilots are also 13th on efficiency inside the arc and 29th on all shots.
Portland has only played one quad I opponent so far, notching a win at home against a Princeton team that is now 6-4. The rest of the conference only features two teams above .500. Portland is the only team in the NET top 100. Given the strength of schedule that many WCC teams have played and the relatively middling lack of success, the conference could realistically go anyone’s way. Portland has the strongest case but is vulnerable on defense and hasn’t faced a true test yet.
WSU needs a lot to go right to even have a shot to make the tournament, and the WCC isn’t doing them any favors. It is looking increasingly likely that the conference will only feature one team in the tournament. For the Cougs, the first half of the season presented their greatest challenges and gave them plenty of opportunities to learn and grow. The second half should be the time to turn things around and translate the early learning experiences into success. A return trip to the Women’s Basketball Invitational Tournament can be considered a real possibility. If conference play ends up being a disappointment though, Ethridge and her staff can still come out of this season knowing their young core is developing and has the potential to make much more noise in the future.
Ethridge and her squad need to start with the little things first, focusing on individual parts of the game as they move through the rest of the season. The team is 334th in rebounding percentage and 303rd in defensive rating. WSU is also struggling from three, shooting just 29.6%. If the team can at least work on improving these critical areas of the game, Ethridge can feel better not only about her team’s chances this season but also about the progress they’ve made in preparing for the future.
Given the Cougs’ recent success in the Pac-12 and how the program has improved dramatically since Ethridge arrived, there would seem to be pressure on the team to get things right in conference play. Instead, with the team’s circumstances, subtle improvements from the team’s newest members should be the measure of success.
WSU begins conference play against San Diego, the team with the lowest NET and RPI rankings in the WCC, a chance for the Cougs to get some momentum going and match their longest win streak of the season at just two wins.
WSU travels to San Diego on Dec. 19 to face the Toreros at 6 p.m.
