WSU has now finished two of their 18 conference games in its first year in the West Coast Conference, and it off to a 2-0 start.
Today, let’s predict the WCC standings when it’s all said and done.
First Place: Gonzaga (16-2)
Gonzaga is the No. 6 ranked team in the NET rankings, but has lost five games the year already and looks beatable. The good news for Gonzaga is that even at their worst, they have been in every game. All their losses are against top fifty teams, and all were within ten points.
The WCC will be easier competition than the Bulldogs faced in their non-conference slate. Theoretically the Bulldogs should win every game, but it does appear that Gonzaga is beatable this year. Saint Mary’s, Oregon State and San Francisco all look like NCAA tournament worthy teams, and it feels like two of the three can beat Gonzaga.
Second place: San Francisco (15-3)
San Francisco navigated a tough non-conference schedule and worked their way into the top 60 in both the NET and KenPom rankings. They recently cruised to a double-digit win against a decent Loyola Marymount squad. It feels like USF is legit this year and could make a deep run into the WCC tournament.
Third place: Saint Mary’s (14-4)Â
Saint Mary’s returned a solid core from 2023, when they upset Gonzaga twice and won the WCC championship game. They are once again considered a bubble team for the NCAA tournament, and should dominate the lesser schools in the WCC.
Fourth place: Oregon State (13-5)
In their first year in the WCC, the Beavers have outperformed expectations. They went to the finals in their Christmas tournament in Hawaii, and have looked like they can handle anyone. Gonzaga will be a struggle, but the Beavers will hold their own against every other team in the WCC.
Fifth place: Santa Clara (12-6)
Santa Clara returned four of their top five scorers from 2023, and have made a big improvement over the offseason. Similar to the Beavers, they probably aren’t beating Gonzaga, but every other game is winnable.
Sixth place: Washington State (11-7)
The Cougars would likely be a top-three team in the conference if not for injuries to Cedric Coward and Isaiah Watts, which have hurt the Cougs depth. The injuries could prevent the Cougs from making a deep run, but this is still a strong Wazzu team capable of beating anyone.
Seventh place: Loyola Marymount (7-11)
The definition of average, Loyola Marymount will beat the teams ranked below them and lose to the teams above them. The Lions will give some teams a fight, but ultimately probably are not making noise in the tournament.
Eighth place: Pepperdine (5-13)
Pepperdine impressed in a seven-point loss to Gonzaga, but don’t let that fool you. Pepperdine is a weak team and will struggle to find wins in a strong WCC.
Ninth place: Pacific (3-15)
Pacific probably only beats Portland and San Diego this year.
Tenth place: Portland (2-16)
Between Portland and San Diego for tenth and eleventh place, it feels like a real tossup, but Portland has had slightly better results so far and is ranked a few spots ahead in the KenPom index.
Eleventh place: San Diego (1-17)
San Diego is left as the last place team in the WCC. Strong possibility the only team the Toreros beat all season is Portland.
Playoff projections:
Round 1:Â
No. 7 Loyola Marymount vs No. 10 Portland
The Lions are no powerhouse but they should have no problems with a very weak Pilots squad.
No. 8 Pepperdine vs No. 9 Pacific
Pepperdine and Pacific should be a close game, but if the version of Pepperdine that just gave the Bulldogs a run for their money shows up, Pacific will not stand much of a chance.
Round 2:Â
No. 5 Santa Clara vs No. 8 Pepperdine
Santa Clara should have no problem getting past the pesky Pepperdine squad.
No. 6 Washington State vs No. 7 Loyola Marymount
WSU and LMU just played, and the game never got away from the Cougs, who led the whole time. If they can control the pace of play, the Cougars can win.
QuarterfinalsÂ
No. 3 Saint Mary’s vs No. 6 Washington State
Assuming Isaiah Watts is back, the Cougars will give Saint Mary’s a good fight, but the Gaels should win this in the end.
No. 4 Oregon State vs No. 5 Santa ClaraÂ
The first upset of the tournament comes from Santa Clara, who will upset a Beavers team that will come up just short.
Semifinals:Â
No. 1 Gonzaga vs No. 5 Santa Clara
The Bulldogs are beatable this year, but not for Santa Clara, whose run will finish in the semifinals.
No. 2 San Francisco vs No. 3 Saint Mary’s
It feels like this year could be USF’s year. The Dons can defeat Saint Mary’s and find themselves in the WCC championship game.
FinalsÂ
No. 1 Gonzaga vs No. 2 San Francisco
San Francisco is good, but not good enough. The Gonzaga Bulldogs will claim their 21st WCC title in the past 26 years with a win, and punch their ticket to a two-seed in the NCAA tournament. USF and Saint Mary’s also get nods into the tournament, while Oregon State and Santa Clara compete in the NIT.