The Cougars (15-5) head south to Santa Clara for a Quad 1 matchup against the Santa Clara Broncos (13-7) on Thursday night.
The Cougs are coming off an interesting week. After losing a home game to Pacific, WSU played Gonzaga close, losing by 13 in Spokane. From there, they squeezed by San Diego in a 65-61 win that was a bit too close for comfort, before finally shifting into high gear and laying a 22-point win over Portland.
WSU is now ranked No. 89 in the KenPom rankings, having dropped over twenty spots since their loss to Pacific, and is ranked No. 81 in the NET rankings.
Santa Clara comes in ranked No. 64 in both the NET rankings and KenPom. Despite having a worse record, the Broncos are coming off a massive road upset over Gonzaga, which significantly boosted their ranking. However, they have struggled against inferior teams. Santa Clara is 4-2 against Quad 2 teams and 1-3 against Quad 3 teams. WSU is a Quad 2 opponent for the Broncos.
The Cougs and Broncos have played very similar schedules this year, with eight common opponents. Among those common opponents, the Cougars are 6-2, while the Broncos are 5-4 (Santa Clara has played San Francisco twice and WSU has played them once).
Both schools beat Bradley and Fresno State by double digits, and both schools beat San Diego in close games, with Santa Clara beating the Toreros by one point on the road. Santa Clara lost by 26 points to Nevada, who the Cougs beat, and both schools lost to Washington, though the Broncos were closer, only losing by seven.
In the West Coast Conference, Santa Clara lost to Loyola Marymount by three on the road, a team the Cougs beat by 14 in Spokane. The Cougs also handled San Francisco, beating them by nine. Santa Clara lost at USF in their first game against the Dons in a 97-94 thriller, but bounced back to beat them 77-54 at home.
Santa Clara’s best win of the season was on the road at Gonzaga, where they scored 103 points in a four-point win. WSU lost by 13 at the same arena a week earlier. Against the Bulldogs, the Broncos hit 18 three-pointers and grabbed 38 rebounds.
Santa Clara is 7-2 at home, with their two losses coming against Stanford and North Dakota State. WSU is 3-2 on the road, with wins over Nevada, Portland and San Diego, and losses to Gonzaga and Washington.
The Broncos strength is their offense, which is ranked 47th, as opposed to WSU’s 99th-ranked offense. The Cougs, for the first time all season, have a higher-rated defense. The Wazzu defense is ranked 86th, while Santa Clara’s defense is ranked 95th.
Leading the Broncos offense is Adama-Alpha Bal. The senior guard, who hails from Le Mans, France, is leading Santa Clara with 280 points, shooting .359 from deep, .420 from the field, and .781 from the free-throw line. Limiting Bal will be key for WSU if they want to slow down the Broncos offense.
Similar to the Cougs, Santa Clara is full of guys who can shoot. Their entire starting lineup and sixth man all shoot over 35% from beyond the three-point arc, and the team leads the WCC with an average of 10.1 threes per game. WSU is third in the conference making just over nine per game.
Perhaps most dangerous is senior guard Tyeree Bryan, who is shooting .481 from the field and .409 from deep. Bryan knocked down seven three-pointers against Gonzaga, but entered the game on an 0-10 slide. The Cougs will need to prevent Bryan from getting hot again.
The Cougs could get Isaiah Watts back, though it is unlikely. Watts has been practicing with the team, and is hopeful to return within the next week or so, but he is not expected to play on Thursday.
ESPN’s matchup predictor gives the Broncos a 63.6% chance to win, and gives the Cougars a 36.4% chance to win.
