South
1. Auburn vs. 16. Southern/SE Missouri State
8. New Mexico vs. 9. Baylor
5. Clemson vs. 12. McNeese
4. Purdue vs. 13. Lipscomb
6. Oregon vs. 11. Texas/Wake Forest
3. Texas A&M vs. 14. Chattanooga
7. Memphis vs. 10. West Virginia
2. Houston vs. 15. Norfolk State
West
1. Alabama vs. 16. Omaha
8. Utah State vs. 9. Gonzaga
5. Arizona vs. 12. UC San Diego
4. Michigan vs. 13. High Point
6. UCLA vs. 11. Arkansas/Ohio State
3. Texas Tech vs. 14. Grand Canyon
7. St. Mary’s vs. 10. BYU
2. Michigan State vs. 15. Montana
Midwest
1. Florida vs. 16. Vermont
8. Creighton vs. 9. Vanderbilt
5. Marquette vs. 12. Drake
4. Missouri vs. 13. Akron
6. Ole Miss vs. 11. Nebraska
3. Wisconsin vs. 14. Towson
7. Louisville vs. 10. San Diego State
2. Iowa State vs. 15. Robert Morris
East
1. Duke vs. 16. American/Marist
8. Illinois vs. 9. UConn
5. Maryland vs. 12. Liberty
4. Kentucky vs. 13. Yale
6. Misissippi State vs. 11. VCU
3. St. John’s vs. 14. James Madison
7. Kansas vs. 10. Oklahoma
2. Tennessee vs. 15. Central Connecticut
Last Four In:
Texas
Arkansas
Ohio State
Wake Forest
First Four out:
North Carolina
Indiana
Boise State
Georgia
In Consideration:
SMU
Xavier
George Mason
Once a team reaches the bubble, it is clear every team has something that could be considered worthy of elimination. For Nebraska, Oklahoma and Texas, the element of elimination is the eye test at the moment. The Cornhuskers are being carried by seniors Brice Williams and Juwan Gary. Oklahoma is 4-10 in conference and even though the committee does not look at conference records, those 14 games came in the last 14 of the Sooners season. Texas also just lost to South Carolina, a team that had not won since Dec. 30, 2024.
Arkansas is playing well at the right time of the season, but in the middle of the season, the Razorbacks dropped a couple of must-win games.
Ohio State has the metrics to back up their case, but losses to Northwestern, Pitt and Indiana are holding the Buckeyes back as well as the amount of losses piling up.
Wake Forest has a good eye test and has limited their Quad 2 losses to just four. Their NET ranking of No. 63 and Quad 1 record of 2-6 are huge red flags.
Teams on the outside looking in can make huge strides with resume-building wins.
Boise State has Colorado State and Utah State left on their schedule and the Mountain West conference tournament in Las Vegas coming up.
Georgia has Texas and Vanderbilt left. With two wins in those games, the Bulldogs will have the head-to-head advantage over two SEC bubble teams.
North Carolina and Indiana do not have a lot of resume-building games left, but they both have favorable remaining schedules. If the Tar Heels and Hoosiers keep winning, they can put themselves in a position to make the tournament.
George Mason, SMU and Xavier might need great showings in their conference tournaments to make the tournament—or they may even need to win them outright.
