We are down to the Final Four as the calendar turns to April and the Blue Devils are the favorites to win the NCAA tournament.
The four teams left are all No. 1 seeds: Auburn, Duke, Houston and Florida.
Duke held No. 2 Alabama to 65 points in the Elite 8. The Crimson Tide averaged 90.7 points per game heading into that matchup. The reason for the strong defensive showing was the height and length that Duke has. The Blue Devils are the tallest team in college basketball with an average height of 6-foot-8. The smallest player to get consistent minutes is 6-foot-6 junior Tyrese Proctor.
On top of their length, Duke is 12th in the country in three-point percentage at 38.6%. Houston, Duke’s Final Four opponent, will have to limit long offensive rebounds off misses on Saturday while putting pressure on the Blue Devil shooters to actually hit their shots.
The Cougars lead the country in opponent points per game, giving up 58.3 points per game. Houston backed that up with a strong defensive performance against Tennessee, holding the Volunteers to 50 points in the Elite 8. Houston needs to go over screens and run Duke off the three-point line to make a similar defensive impact.
It will be a challenge for Houston against the lengthy Blue Devils, but not because of offense.
The Cougars are 167th in scoring and are 273rd in three-point attempts in the country. That means Houston relies on its defense to create offense and likes to work through the paint. That will be tough to do against the height of Duke.
In the other Final Four matchup, Auburn takes on Florida for the second time this season.
The Florida Gators average 85.4 points per game, fourth in the country, and are fifth in rebounds per game at 41.9. Seniors Dylan Cardwell and Johni Broome will need to box out on defense because the Gators average 13.9 offensive rebounds per game. The Tigers also have to limit the amount of extra possessions Florida has.
The Gators starting backcourt averages 45.9 points per game, so Auburn’s guards must force the ball out of their hands and make Florida’s frontcourt make shots.
On the flip side, Florida will have to force the ball out of Johni Broome’s hands and keep him off the boards. If the Gators can do that, they will have a good chance of beating the Tigers for the second time this season.
But that is easier said than done.
Broome has scored 69 points and grabbed 53 rebounds so far in the tournament.
Whoever wins the title game will have to go through two of the toughest opponents in the past 30 years.
KenPom started ranking teams in the 1996-97 season. Duke is second with a rating of +39.6, Houston is sixth with a +36.5, Florida is eighth with a +36.0 and Auburn is tenth with a +35.2.
KenPom is based on a team’s “adjusted efficiency margin, which is calculated by subtracting a team’s adjusted defensive efficiency from its adjusted offensive efficiency, providing a measure of how many points a team would outscore an average Division I opponent.”
The four teams left have a combined record of 135-16.
