March Madness started Tuesday, March 19 with a 16-seed play-in between Howard and Wagner and a 10-seed play-in between Colorado State and Virginia. This is the first year the at-large play-in teams were ten seeds.
That is because of the number of automatic qualifiers that stole bids from at-large teams, five. They were New Mexico, Duquesne, UAB, NC State and Oregon. Those teams are in the tournament because they won their conference tournament.
Usually, the play-in is between 11 seeds, but with four of the five bid-stealers to be seeded as an 11, that pushed the last at-large teams up to a 10-seed. Duquesne is the 11th seed in the East region.
East Region
The favorites to win the East region: UConn, Iowa State, Illinois and Auburn
Potential first-round upsets: Drake over Washington State and Duquesne over BYU
UConn is the favorite to win the title, but the Huskies were not given an easy path to get there. They have the Big 12 tournament champion Iowa State as a two-seed in their region, the Big Ten tournament champion Illinois as a three-seed, and the SEC tournament champion Auburn as a four-seed.
Dan Hurley is one of the best coaches in college basketball and brings the most out of his players. Sophomore Donovan Clingan, senior Tristen Newton and freshman Stephon Castle were highly touted recruits out of high school, but Hurley does an excellent job of bringing in players that fit his style of play that are not recruited nationally.
Senior Cam Spencer and sophomore Alex Karaban, both from the New England area, are three-point specialists that Hurley fits into his lineup that rounds out the starting five.
Coming off a 28-point blowout victory against 1-seed Houston in the Big 12 tournament, 69-41, the Cyclones have a defensive mindset, with sophomore Tamin Lipsey ranked fourth in the nation in steals per game with 2.8. Iowa State is a well-rounded team with four players averaging double figures and their leading scorer, junior Keshon Gilbert, averaging 13 points per game.
The Fighting Illini of Illinois are a senior-laden team. Their top-five scorers are all seniors, led by Terrence Shannon, who is third in the nation in scoring with 23 points per game, coming off a historic showing in the Big Ten tournament with 102 points in Illinois’ three games.
Senior Marcus Domask is a spot-up shooter for the Illini a team that runs a high-low offense with two bigs, seniors Coleman Hawkins and Quincy Guerrier.
Auburn uses a unique rotation. Bruce Pearl plays ten guys who all get a similar number of minutes, which differs from most playing their starting five with their bench coming in sometimes.
The Tigers have ten players averaging at least 14 minutes per game. Pearl’s style of coaching can help in the tournament to have a well-rested team if they keep winning.
Upsets to look out for are Drake over Washington State and Duquesne over BYU. Drake is the highest-seeded team from a one-bid conference. They have size with 6 feet 10-inch senior Darnell Brodie and 6 foot 7-inch junior guard Tucker DeVries, who is the two-time Missouri Valley Conference player of the year.
Even though broadcasters like to highlight DeVries, the Bulldogs are much more than him. Junior Atin Wright has made critical threes for Drake in the conference semifinals and final and freshman Kevin Overton is a shutdown defender.
Sophomore Conor Enright brings energy to the team and picks up full court on defense. Enright is a 3-and-D player for the Bulldogs. Drake has the size to get rebounds on the Cougars and has great perimeter defense to slow down freshman Myles Rice.
Duquesne is led by senior Dae Dae Grant. He shoots 94% from the free-throw line, which is fifth in the country. Grant and senior Jimmy Clark average a combined 32 of the Dukes’ 70 points. BYU is a high perimeter shooting team and Duquesne has the guards to keep up with the Cougars.
West Region
The favorites to win the West region: North Carolina
Potential first-round upsets: Grand Canyon over Saint Mary’s; New Mexico over Clemson; Nevada over Dayton
North Carolina is the favorite to win the West region. Seniors Armando Bacot and RJ Davis have played in the national title game in 2022. That Tar Heel team had Caleb Love, now a senior at Arizona, but did not have as many role players that have stepped up when North Carolina needs them.
That 2022 team had Brady Manek, but this 2024 team has senior Cormac Ryan, a three-point specialist who transferred from Notre Dame, junior Harrison Ingram, a stretch four who transferred from Stanford, and freshman Elliot Cadeau who is a point guard who distributes the ball well and limits turning the ball over and gives Davis the luxury of scoring off ball.
The West region and the South region are both open and I see a lot of upsets happening in those regions.
Grand Canyon can beat St. Mary’s with their talent. Senior Tyon Grant-Foster, a transfer from DePaul and Kansas, averages 20 points per game and 6 rebounds per game. He is an NBA prospect that a lot of scouts have been following in the ladder end of the season. Senior Gabe McGlothan and junior Ray Harrison both average 13 points per game with McGlothan averaging 7 rebounds per game and Harrison averaging 4 assists per game.
Oregon transfer Lok Wur has also been coming on as of late. The Antelopes are in the rare situation of being a 12 seed but having higher touted players compared to the five seed they are playing because of the transfers they have landed this year.
New Mexico has a great trio of guards with seniors Jaelen House and Jamal Mashburn Jr. and sophomore Donovan Dent. They combined for 45 of the Lobos’ 81 points per game, with senior Nelly Junior Joseph and freshman JT Toppin averaging 13 points per game rounding out the starting lineup. The Lobos are a team that likes to create turnovers and get transition points off them.
While New Mexico has four guys averaging 13 points or more, Nevada only has two. They rely on seniors Jarod Lucas, who transferred from Oregon State, and Kenan Blackshear, who transferred from Virginia Tech. Lucs averages 18 points per game on a 90% free throw percentage and 40% three-point percentage. Blackshear averages 15 points per game and 5 rebounds and assists per game.
The Wolfpack can pull off the upset because Dayton is facing a lot of injuries and if someone told miss this matchup was going to be in the first round, I would have thought that Nevada was the seven seed and Dayton was the ten seed.
South Region
The favorite in the South Region: Houston
Potential upsets: James Madison over Wisconsin; NC State over Texas Tech; Oakland over Kentucky
Houston is a defensive-minded team, at times struggling to create a rhythm on offense. The Cougars are senior-heavy, led by Jamal Shead, known as one of the best point guards in college basketball. Houston also got a boost in bringing in Baylor transfer LJ Cryer.
The James Madison Dukes are the winningest team in college basketball with 31 wins. Senior TJ Bickerstaff averages 13 points per game and 8.5 rebounds per game, shooting 63% from the field. The matchup to watch between the Dukes and the Badgers is the big men in the paint.
The biggest question for NC State is if they can continue the momentum they created in the ACC tournament. The Wolfpack’s best players are two DJs, Horne and Burns. DJ Burns is the definition of an immovable and the closest thing college basketball has to Nikola Jokic.
Burns will run point for NC State and if teams plan to double-team him, he will find the open man down low, if he is not double-teamed, he will get a bucket. DJ Horne is a quick guard who gets to the rack but also shoots 41.3% from three.
Now this last one is a long shot. In the years that Kentucky and Duke are talked about as advancing far into the tournament, they seem to always lay an egg. Oakland junior Trey Townsend is coming off a 38-point, 11 rebounds and 5-assist game to send the Golden Grizzlies to the tournament on 55% shooting from the field. Kentucky has struggled to defend, so if Townsend has a good night, look out wildcats.
Midwest Region
The favorites to win the Midwest region: Purdue and Creighton
Potential first-round upsets: McNeese over Gonzaga; Samford over Kansas; Oregon over South Carolina; Colorado State over Texas
Purdue will need to exercise their double-digit seeded demons to get past the Sweet Sixteen. Purdue lost to 13-seed North Texas in the first round in 2021, 15-seed Saint Peter’s in the Sweet 16 in 2022, and to 16-seed FDU in the first round in 2023.
Creighton made it to the Elite 8 last year, losing a heartbreaker to San Diego State. Creighton has one of the best starting five in college basketball, but they only go three deep on the bench and there is a significant drop-off in talent and distribution.
The name that everybody will get to know this March Madness is McNeese’s Shahada Wells. He is a transfer from TCU that averages 18 points per game and 5 rebounds and assists per game.
What helps the Cowboys is they are a small team, but so is Gonzaga. McNeese’s big man, junior Christian Shumate is 6-foot 6-inches and 213 pounds and averages 12 points per game and 10 rebounds per game. Gonzaga junior Graham Ike has a few inches on Shumate at 6 feet 9 inches, but that is not as bad compared to other high seeds in the tournament.
The X-factor in the game is to see if McNeese can get rebounds and keep the Bulldogs off the boards.
Samford is the team who got the luckiest draw in the tournament. The Bulldogs lost to Purdue by 53 in non-conference play. I know the Boilermakers are a one-seed, but that would be a potential Sweet 16 matchup and Samford did not belong on the floor.
All-American Kevin McCullar Jr. is out for the tournament and senior Hunter Dickinson is returning from injury. The Jayhawks already do not have depth and losing half of their average scoring just makes it worse. Kansas will play seven guys against the Bulldogs.
Like Kansas, Oregon does not play a lot of players off the bench, but the points are distributed throughout their eight players who see consistent minutes. Senior N’Faly Dante has the best field goal percentage at 70.2% in college basketball.
They also have one of the best freshmen in college basketball in Jackson Shelstad. Senior Jermaine Couisnard also contributes as the leading scorer for the Ducks with 15.4 points per game. Oregon has five players averaging in double figures. Oregon will win this game if they can carry the momentum they created in the Pac-12 tournament over to March Madness.
Colorado State against Texas is like Dayton and Nevada. Going into selection Sunday, it made more sense if Texas was a ten seed and Colorado State was a seven seed. Also, 11 of the 12 years the tournament had the play-in, one of the teams that won the play-in also won their first-round match-up.
