March Madness is here. The first round starts with eight-seed Louisville against nine-seed Creighton Thursday at 9:15 a.m. on CBS. Here is a regional breakdown of the bracket:
South Region
The favorites to win the region: Auburn and Michigan State
Potential first round upsets: UC San Diego over Michigan, Yale over Texas A&M, North Carolina over Ole Miss and New Mexico over Marquette
Auburn had a historic regular season. The Tigers had a record 16 quad one wins, the most in NCAA history. That was on the back of forward Johni Broome and the bench depth. The team did not end the season how they wanted to, losing three of their final four games. No team has ever gone 1-3 heading into March Madness and won it all.
Michigan State relies on its strengths, hoping its weaknesses are covered in the process. The Spartans are the fifth-worst three-point shooting team in the power conference. Their guards distribute the ball well and grind games out with defense
Every year since the inception of the First Four in 2011, a play-in team has won their first-round matchup after winning in Dayton every year except 2019. That means historically, either North Carolina will beat Ole Miss or the winner of Texas-Xavier will beat Illinois.
Further down the bracket fans are spoiled with a battle of two of the best guards in college basketball. Marquette’s Kam Jones is a unanimous All-Big East team selection and a finalist for player of the year and point guard of the year. New Mexico’s Donovan Dent is eighth in the country in scoring and 12th in the country in assists. Dent is one of the best point guards in transition and is hard to guard one-on-one. This will be one of the most exciting matchups to watch in the first round.
Some Cinderella stories to watch in the South region are UC San Diego and Yale.
Triton head coach Eric Olen used data analytics to make decisions, and it showed. The numbers say the best shots are twos close to the rim and threes. Their two big men can shoot threes and senior Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones has shot and made the most free throws in the country. Guard Hayden Gray is a finalist for defensive player of the year, leading the country in steals per game with 3.2. Senior guard Tyler McGhie averages about 3.5 three-pointers made per game, tied for third in the country. Round that out with Chris Howell and Justin Rochelin, and Michigan has a problem on their hands.
Another one is Yale. The Bulldogs have one of the best backcourts in the mid-major ranks with John Poulakidas (averaging 19.2 points) and Bez Mbeng (averaging 13.4 points and 5.6 assists). Junior Nick Townsend has filled in the big shoes of Danny Wolf and this team has made fans in New Haven, Connecticut, remind them of last year’s team that beat Auburn. Can they do it again? That at 4:25 p.m Thursday evening.
West Region
The favorites to win the region: Florida and St. John’s
Potential first round upsets: Colorado State over Memphis, Grand Canyon over Maryland and Drake over Missouri
Florida and St. John’s could not be more opposite than each other. Florida head coach Todd Golden takes advantage of data analytics, utilizing depth and shooting a lot of threes. St. John’s is a spitting image of Michigan State. They are the third-worst three-point shooting team in a power conference and tend to grind out their wins. The Johnnies also rely heavily on their top seven guys and play others just to give their starters some rest. Florida against St. John’s would make for one interesting Elite Eight game.
Colorado State is one of the hottest teams in college basketball right now. They have won 10 in a row, including a 27-point win over Utah State and three wins in the Mountain West tournament to gain the conference’s automatic bid. Senior Nique Clifford is a projected lottery pick and the anchor of this Rams team. He leads the team in points, assists, rebounds and steals per game. Besides Clifford, what makes Colorado State special is its depth. Head coach Niko Medved plays ten-deep and every player contributes in some way, whether that is shooting the ball, playing defense, distributing the ball or crashing the glass. The Rams are the best team in a MWC that sent four teams to the tournament.
The Rams are primed to be this year’s Cinderella.
Grand Canyon is another team to keep an eye on due to talent, experience and length. The Antelopes are not like other mid-major teams. They have power conference transfers and players who were involved in a tournament win over St. Mary’s last year. Derik Queen will be a lot to handle for Grand Canyon, but Bryce Drew can make needed adjustments for the Lopes to win.
One of the most popular Cinderella teams in this tournament is Drake. This was supposed to be a transition year for the Bulldogs, but Ben McCollum was able to showcase the type of talent available at the D-II level by bringing up four of his best players from Northwest Missouri State and hitting the ground running. During non-conference play, Drake beat Vanderbilt and Kansas State. They have a slow pace, but an efficient style of offense and a suffocating defense. That is a formula for a close game and potential upset.
East Region
The favorites to win the region: Duke, Alabama and Wisconsin
Potential first round upsets: Liberty over Oregon, Akron over Arizona, VCU over BYU and Vanderbilt over St. Mary’s
The favorite to win is not the top overall seed, Auburn, but instead Duke. The Blue Devils are waiting to see if freshman Cooper Flagg is healthy for their push toward the program’s sixth title. What makes Duke special is their length. The smallest guy in the Blue Devil rotation is 6’6” and many players have defined roles.
A player to watch out for is John Tonje of Wisconsin. Tonje came out of nowhere as one of the best players in the Big Ten. He averages 19.2 points and 5.3 rebounds per game. He was just announced to the All-American second team. Tonje could take over the tournament and potentially carry Wisconsin to the program’s fifth final four appearance in school history.
The upsets to watch out for are Liberty, Akron and VCU. Liberty is one of the best three-point shooting teams in the country. They will be tested against Oregon’s size. This game reminds me of the Michigan-UC San Diego game. It will come down to if the Flames can make their threes and limit Oregon’s frontcourt off the offensive boards.
Akron is probably the best double-digit seed no one is picking for an upset. The Zips are 28-6 and have lost once in 2025. Head coach John Groce led Akron to their third tournament in four years and the Zips are hot right now. Arizona is also notoriously known to not live up to their expectations in the tournament.
VCU against BYU is a tough game to predict. One of the main ways for a double-digit seed to pull off the first-round upset is to control the pace of the game. VCU is defensive-minded and wants to create offense off their defense. BYU wants to get out in transition and run the floor to score. The key for the Rams will be to hold BYU under 70 points. If the Cougars score over 70, it will be hard for VCU to keep up.
Midwest Region
The favorites to win the region: Houston, Tennessee and Clemson
Potential first round upsets: McNeese over Clemson
This Houston team is not your traditional Kelvin Sampson-coached team.
The Cougars have three players shooting over 40% from three and have maintained one of the best defenses in the country. It will be tough for them to escape this region with Tennessee and Clemson in it.
The beauty of this tournament is the uncertainty of what is coming. Clemson could make a run in the tournament like it did last year, or the Tigers could lose in the first round. According to Evan Miyakawa, Clemson has the best five-man lineup in college basketball based on observed efficiency margin (observed offensive efficiency subtracted by observed defensive efficiency). This is after the senior-laden Tigers went to the Elite Eight last year before losing to Alabama. Clemson is a dark horse to win the Midwest region, but needs to top McNeese first.
The region seems to lack significant upset opportunities, although that’s seemingly always the one with upsets. The other upset to look at is Utah State over UCLA, but the Aggies have struggled in their last five games. Going mostly chalk in this region is the safest bet.
