George Kirby in March, Logan Gilbert in April and now Bryce Miller in May. Since the start of the 2025 season the Mariners have watched their star pitchers drop like flies to the injury bug. Kirby left with a shoulder injury and both Gilbert and Miller with elbow issues.
For the past three years Mariners fans have been eating good out of the bullpen. Gilbert’s arrival in 2021 marked the beginning of a new era in Mariners’ pitching characterized by lock down outings and one-run ball games. In 2022, Luis Castillo found his way to Seattle after being traded by the Cincinnati Reds and Kirby made his debut as well, adding two quality arms to the rotation. Finally in 2023, Bryan Woo and Miller broke through to the big leagues, giving the Mariners one of the best five-men rotations in all of professional baseball.
During those three years, the rotation managed to claw the Mariners up the MLB ranks in terms of ERA. Back in 2020, the team was 24th overall. In 2022 they were eighth, third in 2023 and second in 2024. After years of struggling on the mound, the Mariners were building something groundbreaking in the bullpen.
Despite the juggernaut pitching staff, the team still missed out on the postseason in 2023 and 2024. How so? Largely because their team OPS ranked them 16th and 22nd in those years respectively. What does that mean? No run support.
This lack of run support may have played a large factor in the recent injuries. Each member of the starting rotation excluding Castillo has seen their workload increase every year. Gilbert, for example, averaged five innings a start in 2021 but saw it rise to around 6 1/3 innings in 2024. In games where the offense only manages to produce one or two runs, the Mariners may push their starters an inning or two longer than they may want. While they have been able to stay healthy for the past three years, their workload is catching up to them in 2025.
The hitting issues with the Mariners have been apparent for years. However, the offense has found new life in 2025, with the team sitting at first place in the AL West and just recently winning nine straight series. The surge of production has come largely off the bats of Jorge Polanco and Dylan Moore, who both won AL players of the week, and Cal Raleigh who is tied for third in the league for home runs. With Castillo and Woo picking up the slack in the bullpen and the lineup finally scoring runs, the team has managed to put together an exciting start to the season.
Considering the hot offense and the M’s current rank in the division, how worried should fans really be about these injuries? The answer is… mildly.
Their injuries are far from career ending and chances are that both Gilbert and Kirby will be returning very soon to the rotation. Kirby has had encouraging rehab outings with the Tacoma Rainiers and Gilbert has already started throwing bullpens. Miller is a bit more of a question mark but will likely return sometime down the road.
Additionally, Logan Evans and Emerson Hancock have proved themselves useful fill ins for the time being. Despite giving up six runs in his season debut against the Detroit Tigers, Hancock has bounced back and dropped his ERA down to 6.91, far from ideal but still an improvement from his earlier 81.00. Evans has performed promisingly posting an ERA of 3.6 through three starts. While they may not be fully baked now, both pitchers serve as good evidence of a bullpen that has upside potential.
Also, this Mariners pitching staff is young (with the exception of Castillo at 32 years old). Gilbert is the eldest at 28, followed by Kirby at 27, Miller at 26, Woo and Hancock at 25 and finally Evans at 23. All these arms have years of potential still stored inside them. While that is cause for excitement among fans, it may also be a source of worry. For Gilbert and Kirby these injuries are the first in their career. Miller and Woo have had short stints on the IL previously but for non-concerning reasons (a finger blister for Miller for example). Seeing these young stars getting injured this early in their career could be the markers of long-term issues. Those issues could result in two equally unfavorable outcomes: dissatisfaction with Seattle resulting in departure, or career ending injuries.
There are ways to avoid these outcomes, the most obvious being run support. The Mariners have hit the cover off the ball in April and have ranked among the highest in the league for offensive production. However, they have cooled off slightly in May, getting swept by the Toronto Blue Jays at home and losing a series to the New York Yankees. If the Mariners hope to preserve the health and talent of their bullpen, they will need to find consistency at the plate in order to give their pitchers some breathing room.
Currently, the M’s find themselves in first place in the division, but only by a razor thin margin. The AL West is the tightest is in the entire league, with both the Texas Rangers and the Houston Astros only one game back and the Athletics nipping at their heels by a half game. Although this gives off the illusion of the division being packed with quality teams, it is quite the opposite. The Mariners with a 0.548 win percentage are the worst first place team in the league and both the Astros and Rangers have been uncharacteristically unproductive so far in the year. The Athletics have been surprisingly successful a quarter of the way in and could possibly leapfrog both the Rangers and Astros if they keep up their hot start.
If there was ever a year for Seattle to sneak into the postseason, it may be this year. With a weak division, an offense that shows promise and a pitching staff on the mend, the Mariners have a strong chance of competing in the AL West and making noise in October.
